Recent U.S. trade data show a goods and services deficit of $60.3 billion in March 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to 2025 amid higher tariffs that have curbed imports more than exports. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the annual deficit will continue shrinking as a share of GDP through 2034, supported by tariff adjustments, supply-chain shifts, and gradual dollar depreciation, though fiscal stimulus and robust domestic demand could sustain higher import levels. These countervailing forces—persistent tariff impacts versus macroeconomic drivers like investment and consumption—keep trader consensus tightly split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with modest probabilities on wider or narrower outcomes reflecting uncertainty over policy continuity and growth trajectories ahead of midterms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$21,010 거래량
$21,010 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
7%
5,000억~6,000억
4%
6,000억~7,000억
4%
7,000억~8,000억
8%
8,000억~9,000억
48%
9,000억~1조
41%
1조–1.1조
6%
1.1조+
5%
$21,010 거래량
$21,010 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,638 거래량
7%
5,000억~6,000억
$413 거래량
4%
6,000억~7,000억
$435 거래량
4%
7,000억~8,000억
$456 거래량
8%
8,000억~9,000억
$1,008 거래량
48%
9,000억~1조
$979 거래량
41%
1조–1.1조
$447 거래량
6%
1.1조+
$635 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show a goods and services deficit of $60.3 billion in March 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to 2025 amid higher tariffs that have curbed imports more than exports. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the annual deficit will continue shrinking as a share of GDP through 2034, supported by tariff adjustments, supply-chain shifts, and gradual dollar depreciation, though fiscal stimulus and robust domestic demand could sustain higher import levels. These countervailing forces—persistent tariff impacts versus macroeconomic drivers like investment and consumption—keep trader consensus tightly split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with modest probabilities on wider or narrower outcomes reflecting uncertainty over policy continuity and growth trajectories ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$21,010종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show a goods and services deficit of $60.3 billion in March 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to 2025 amid higher tariffs that have curbed imports more than exports. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the annual deficit will continue shrinking as a share of GDP through 2034, supported by tariff adjustments, supply-chain shifts, and gradual dollar depreciation, though fiscal stimulus and robust domestic demand could sustain higher import levels. These countervailing forces—persistent tariff impacts versus macroeconomic drivers like investment and consumption—keep trader consensus tightly split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with modest probabilities on wider or narrower outcomes reflecting uncertainty over policy continuity and growth trajectories ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$21,010종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show a goods and services deficit of $60.3 billion in March 2026, with year-to-date narrowing relative to 2025 amid higher tariffs that have curbed imports more than exports. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the annual deficit will continue shrinking as a share of GDP through 2034, supported by tariff adjustments, supply-chain shifts, and gradual dollar depreciation, though fiscal stimulus and robust domestic demand could sustain higher import levels. These countervailing forces—persistent tariff impacts versus macroeconomic drivers like investment and consumption—keep trader consensus tightly split between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with modest probabilities on wider or narrower outcomes reflecting uncertainty over policy continuity and growth trajectories ahead of midterms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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