Higher U.S. tariffs implemented since early 2025 have slowed import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods-and-services deficit to $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly data through March 2026 show ongoing fluctuations, with the March gap widening to $60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through 2026 and beyond, as tariff effects stabilize, the dollar depreciates modestly, and domestic production shifts occur. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, reflecting expectations of further but gradual compression from recent levels rather than sharp contraction or expansion.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$21,010 거래량
$21,010 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
7%
5,000억~6,000억
4%
6,000억~7,000억
4%
7,000억~8,000억
8%
8,000억~9,000억
46%
9,000억~1조
34%
1조–1.1조
6%
1.1조+
5%
$21,010 거래량
$21,010 거래량
2027.02.28
<5,000억 달러
$16,638 거래량
7%
5,000억~6,000억
$413 거래량
4%
6,000억~7,000억
$435 거래량
4%
7,000억~8,000억
$456 거래량
8%
8,000억~9,000억
$1,008 거래량
46%
9,000억~1조
$979 거래량
34%
1조–1.1조
$447 거래량
6%
1.1조+
$635 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Higher U.S. tariffs implemented since early 2025 have slowed import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods-and-services deficit to $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly data through March 2026 show ongoing fluctuations, with the March gap widening to $60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through 2026 and beyond, as tariff effects stabilize, the dollar depreciates modestly, and domestic production shifts occur. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, reflecting expectations of further but gradual compression from recent levels rather than sharp contraction or expansion.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$21,010종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Higher U.S. tariffs implemented since early 2025 have slowed import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods-and-services deficit to $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly data through March 2026 show ongoing fluctuations, with the March gap widening to $60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through 2026 and beyond, as tariff effects stabilize, the dollar depreciates modestly, and domestic production shifts occur. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, reflecting expectations of further but gradual compression from recent levels rather than sharp contraction or expansion.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
거래량
$21,010종료일
2027.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Higher U.S. tariffs implemented since early 2025 have slowed import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments and some export recovery, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods-and-services deficit to $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly data through March 2026 show ongoing fluctuations, with the March gap widening to $60.3 billion amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate the deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through 2026 and beyond, as tariff effects stabilize, the dollar depreciates modestly, and domestic production shifts occur. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, reflecting expectations of further but gradual compression from recent levels rather than sharp contraction or expansion.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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