US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$367,046,745 거래량
January 31?
No
February 28
No
March 1
No
March 3
No
March 7
No
March 14
No
March 31
No
April 30
Yes
December 31
Yes
$367,046,745 거래량
January 31?
$571,796 거래량
No
February 28
$420,868 거래량
No
March 1
$160,345 거래량
No
March 3
$921,360 거래량
No
March 7
$0 거래량
No
March 14
$0 거래량
No
March 31
$73,927,762 거래량
No
April 30
$269,049,107 거래량
Yes
December 31
$21,995,506 거래량
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
거래량
$367,046,745마켓 개설일
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$367,046,745마켓 개설일
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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