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정치·프라이머리

TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자

icon for TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자
정치·프라이머리

TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자

크리스티안 메네피 91.7%

앨 그린 9.3%

그레첸 브라운 <1%

아만다 에드워즈 <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 거래량

크리스티안 메네피 91.7%

앨 그린 9.3%

그레첸 브라운 <1%

아만다 에드워즈 <1%

Polymarket

$27,383 거래량

크리스티안 메네피

$16,494 거래량

92%

앨 그린

$4,637 거래량

9%

그레첸 브라운

$3,536 거래량

<1%

아만다 에드워즈

$2,716 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee at 91% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his double-digit leads in the latest February polls—49% to Al Green's 29% (Lake Research) and 52% to 28% (University of Houston Hobby School)—following the March 3 primary deadlock triggered by mid-decade redistricting merging Green's longtime district with Menefee's seat won in January's special election. Menefee's fundraising dominance ($3.2 million raised, $2 million crypto-backed outside spending) outpaces Green's $1.2 million, bolstering turnout efforts in this safely Democratic, majority-Black Houston-area district. Recent NAACP and other debates showcased Menefee's composure amid Green's attacks on crypto ties. Upsets remain possible via Green's veteran status, local endorsements (e.g., Lina Hidalgo, SEIU), or a low-turnout base mobilization surge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$27,383
종료일
2026.05.26
마켓 개설일
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee at 91% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his double-digit leads in the latest February polls—49% to Al Green's 29% (Lake Research) and 52% to 28% (University of Houston Hobby School)—following the March 3 primary deadlock triggered by mid-decade redistricting merging Green's longtime district with Menefee's seat won in January's special election. Menefee's fundraising dominance ($3.2 million raised, $2 million crypto-backed outside spending) outpaces Green's $1.2 million, bolstering turnout efforts in this safely Democratic, majority-Black Houston-area district. Recent NAACP and other debates showcased Menefee's composure amid Green's attacks on crypto ties. Upsets remain possible via Green's veteran status, local endorsements (e.g., Lina Hidalgo, SEIU), or a low-turnout base mobilization surge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$27,383
종료일
2026.05.26
마켓 개설일
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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자주 묻는 질문

"TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 92%의 "크리스티안 메네피"이며, 이어서 9%의 "앨 그린"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 92¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 92%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자"은 총 $27.4K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Feb 4, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자"의 현재 유력 후보는 92%의 "크리스티안 메네피"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 92%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 9%의 "앨 그린"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"TX-18 민주당 1차 당선자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.