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The Thiel Parlay

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The Thiel Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022:

1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election
2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election
3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate
4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true.

-----------------------------------------------------

Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off.

Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.

Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to.

Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.
거래량
$27,218
종료일
2022.11.08
마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

결과 제안됨: No

이의 없음

최종 결과: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022:

1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election
2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election
3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate
4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true.

-----------------------------------------------------

Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off.

Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.

Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to.

Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.
거래량
$27,218
종료일
2022.11.08
마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

결과 제안됨: No

이의 없음

최종 결과: No

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"The Thiel Parlay"은 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 이 이벤트가 발생할 것인지에 따라 "Yes" 또는 "No" 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 크라우드소싱 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 0%입니다. 예를 들어 "Yes"가 0¢에 거래되면 마켓은 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 0%로 부여합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "The Thiel Parlay"은 총 $27.2K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 4, 2022에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"The Thiel Parlay"에서 거래하려면 답이 "Yes"인지 "No"인지 선택하세요. 각 쪽에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 반영하는 현재 가격이 있습니다. 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 "Yes"로 정산되면 각 주식은 $1을 지급합니다. "No"로 정산되면 "Yes" 주식은 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"The Thiel Parlay"의 현재 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 0%입니다. 이는 Polymarket 크라우드가 현재 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 0%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 실제 거래에 기반하여 실시간으로 업데이트되어 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 지속적으로 업데이트되는 신호를 제공합니다.

"The Thiel Parlay"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.