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정치·SCOTUS

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

Market icon
정치·SCOTUS

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

43% 확률
Polymarket
신규
43% 확률
Polymarket
신규
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,288
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,288
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?"은 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 이 이벤트가 발생할 것인지에 따라 "Yes" 또는 "No" 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 크라우드소싱 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 43%입니다. 예를 들어 "Yes"가 43¢에 거래되면 마켓은 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 43%로 부여합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

"Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?"은 Polymarket에서 새로 생성된 마켓입니다, Dec 16, 2025에 시작됨. 초기 마켓으로서 확률을 설정하고 마켓의 초기 가격 신호를 수립하는 첫 번째 트레이더 중 하나가 될 기회입니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하여 마켓이 성장함에 따라 거래량과 거래 활동을 추적할 수도 있습니다.

"Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?"에서 거래하려면 답이 "Yes"인지 "No"인지 선택하세요. 각 쪽에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 반영하는 현재 가격이 있습니다. 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 "Yes"로 정산되면 각 주식은 $1을 지급합니다. "No"로 정산되면 "Yes" 주식은 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?"의 현재 확률은 "Yes"에 대해 43%입니다. 이는 Polymarket 크라우드가 현재 이 이벤트가 발생할 확률을 43%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 실제 거래에 기반하여 실시간으로 업데이트되어 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 지속적으로 업데이트되는 신호를 제공합니다.

"Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.