Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
거래량
$2,156종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$2,156종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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