The district’s D+10 partisan voter index and Democratic incumbent Joseph Morelle’s 2024 reelection margin of roughly 22 points anchor trader consensus around a continued Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Monroe and surrounding counties and limited Republican recruitment or polling momentum. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Morelle against several challengers, has yet to alter general-election positioning. An unusually strong Republican nominee, a pronounced national midterm swing, or an unexpected primary outcome could still narrow the margin, though historical results in comparable districts indicate these factors rarely overcome the structural advantage reflected in current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,076 거래량
$25,076 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
4%
$25,076 거래량
$25,076 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,992 거래량
94%
공화당
$10,085 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s D+10 partisan voter index and Democratic incumbent Joseph Morelle’s 2024 reelection margin of roughly 22 points anchor trader consensus around a continued Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Monroe and surrounding counties and limited Republican recruitment or polling momentum. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Morelle against several challengers, has yet to alter general-election positioning. An unusually strong Republican nominee, a pronounced national midterm swing, or an unexpected primary outcome could still narrow the margin, though historical results in comparable districts indicate these factors rarely overcome the structural advantage reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$25,076종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s D+10 partisan voter index and Democratic incumbent Joseph Morelle’s 2024 reelection margin of roughly 22 points anchor trader consensus around a continued Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Monroe and surrounding counties and limited Republican recruitment or polling momentum. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Morelle against several challengers, has yet to alter general-election positioning. An unusually strong Republican nominee, a pronounced national midterm swing, or an unexpected primary outcome could still narrow the margin, though historical results in comparable districts indicate these factors rarely overcome the structural advantage reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,076종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s D+10 partisan voter index and Democratic incumbent Joseph Morelle’s 2024 reelection margin of roughly 22 points anchor trader consensus around a continued Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Monroe and surrounding counties and limited Republican recruitment or polling momentum. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring Morelle against several challengers, has yet to alter general-election positioning. An unusually strong Republican nominee, a pronounced national midterm swing, or an unexpected primary outcome could still narrow the margin, though historical results in comparable districts indicate these factors rarely overcome the structural advantage reflected in current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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