Incumbent Democratic Representative Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. Ryan secured reelection in 2024 by a 14-point margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2, reflecting modest Democratic lean. Republican candidate Jackie Auringer advanced after an earlier GOP entrant withdrew amid petition challenges in April, leaving limited opposition. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability, with the Republican Party at 5.3%, as skin-in-the-game assessments weigh incumbency advantages and primary dynamics over the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$33,316 거래량
$33,316 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
6%
민주당
65%
$33,316 거래량
$33,316 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
$1,303 거래량
6%
민주당
$32,013 거래량
65%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. Ryan secured reelection in 2024 by a 14-point margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2, reflecting modest Democratic lean. Republican candidate Jackie Auringer advanced after an earlier GOP entrant withdrew amid petition challenges in April, leaving limited opposition. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability, with the Republican Party at 5.3%, as skin-in-the-game assessments weigh incumbency advantages and primary dynamics over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$33,316종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. Ryan secured reelection in 2024 by a 14-point margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2, reflecting modest Democratic lean. Republican candidate Jackie Auringer advanced after an earlier GOP entrant withdrew amid petition challenges in April, leaving limited opposition. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability, with the Republican Party at 5.3%, as skin-in-the-game assessments weigh incumbency advantages and primary dynamics over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$33,316종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Pat Ryan holds a strong position in New York's 18th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with primaries scheduled for June 23. Ryan secured reelection in 2024 by a 14-point margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2, reflecting modest Democratic lean. Republican candidate Jackie Auringer advanced after an earlier GOP entrant withdrew amid petition challenges in April, leaving limited opposition. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 66.5% implied probability, with the Republican Party at 5.3%, as skin-in-the-game assessments weigh incumbency advantages and primary dynamics over the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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