Anthony DiLorenzo holds the lead in the September 8, 2026, New Hampshire Republican primary for the open 1st Congressional District seat with 63.5% market-implied probability due to his substantial early fundraising edge exceeding $1.2 million and a recent Turning Point Action endorsement. As a first-time candidate and auto dealership owner emphasizing private-sector efficiency, energy costs, and reduced federal spending, he benefits from name recognition in a crowded field that includes state Representative Hollie Noveletsky at 21.5%. Attacks from Noveletsky on immigration positions have not shifted trader consensus, while lower-polling candidates like Elizabeth Girard and Melissa Bailey trail amid high early undecided rates typical in multi-candidate congressional primaries. The race remains open to late developments before the primary.