Trader consensus prices a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, reflecting robust institutional barriers and sustained alliance operations amid U.S.-led burden-sharing pressures. A 2024 U.S. law mandates congressional approval—via two-thirds Senate vote or joint resolution—for any American withdrawal, while market resolution requires over half of current members to exit formally. Recent strains stem from the Trump administration's April 2026 criticisms of European non-support in the Iran conflict, threats of partial U.S. troop drawdowns from Germany (5,000 forces), and a December 2025 Pentagon deadline for Europe to assume most conventional defense by 2027. Yet, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's ongoing engagements, planned Arctic Sentry mission, and July Ankara summit signal continuity, with Europeans advancing contingency mutual assistance pacts as adaptation, not rupture.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$75,778 거래량
$75,778 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$75,778 거래량
$75,778 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, reflecting robust institutional barriers and sustained alliance operations amid U.S.-led burden-sharing pressures. A 2024 U.S. law mandates congressional approval—via two-thirds Senate vote or joint resolution—for any American withdrawal, while market resolution requires over half of current members to exit formally. Recent strains stem from the Trump administration's April 2026 criticisms of European non-support in the Iran conflict, threats of partial U.S. troop drawdowns from Germany (5,000 forces), and a December 2025 Pentagon deadline for Europe to assume most conventional defense by 2027. Yet, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's ongoing engagements, planned Arctic Sentry mission, and July Ankara summit signal continuity, with Europeans advancing contingency mutual assistance pacts as adaptation, not rupture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
거래량
$75,778종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, reflecting robust institutional barriers and sustained alliance operations amid U.S.-led burden-sharing pressures. A 2024 U.S. law mandates congressional approval—via two-thirds Senate vote or joint resolution—for any American withdrawal, while market resolution requires over half of current members to exit formally. Recent strains stem from the Trump administration's April 2026 criticisms of European non-support in the Iran conflict, threats of partial U.S. troop drawdowns from Germany (5,000 forces), and a December 2025 Pentagon deadline for Europe to assume most conventional defense by 2027. Yet, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's ongoing engagements, planned Arctic Sentry mission, and July Ankara summit signal continuity, with Europeans advancing contingency mutual assistance pacts as adaptation, not rupture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$75,778종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93% implied probability against NATO dissolving before 2027, reflecting robust institutional barriers and sustained alliance operations amid U.S.-led burden-sharing pressures. A 2024 U.S. law mandates congressional approval—via two-thirds Senate vote or joint resolution—for any American withdrawal, while market resolution requires over half of current members to exit formally. Recent strains stem from the Trump administration's April 2026 criticisms of European non-support in the Iran conflict, threats of partial U.S. troop drawdowns from Germany (5,000 forces), and a December 2025 Pentagon deadline for Europe to assume most conventional defense by 2027. Yet, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's ongoing engagements, planned Arctic Sentry mission, and July Ankara summit signal continuity, with Europeans advancing contingency mutual assistance pacts as adaptation, not rupture.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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