The Massachusetts 3rd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent election results including the incumbent's prior 97.5% general election share, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Lori Trahan, the sitting representative first elected in 2018, faces a limited primary challenge while Republican Gary Grossi advances in his party's contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. No significant shifts in voter registration, redistricting, or candidate dynamics have altered this positioning in recent months. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave or a late primary upset displacing the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican nominee to prevail.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,938 거래량
$15,938 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$15,938 거래량
$15,938 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$7,144 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$8,794 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 3rd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent election results including the incumbent's prior 97.5% general election share, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Lori Trahan, the sitting representative first elected in 2018, faces a limited primary challenge while Republican Gary Grossi advances in his party's contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. No significant shifts in voter registration, redistricting, or candidate dynamics have altered this positioning in recent months. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave or a late primary upset displacing the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican nominee to prevail.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$15,938종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 3rd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent election results including the incumbent's prior 97.5% general election share, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Lori Trahan, the sitting representative first elected in 2018, faces a limited primary challenge while Republican Gary Grossi advances in his party's contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. No significant shifts in voter registration, redistricting, or candidate dynamics have altered this positioning in recent months. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave or a late primary upset displacing the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican nominee to prevail.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,938종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 3rd congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent election results including the incumbent's prior 97.5% general election share, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Lori Trahan, the sitting representative first elected in 2018, faces a limited primary challenge while Republican Gary Grossi advances in his party's contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. No significant shifts in voter registration, redistricting, or candidate dynamics have altered this positioning in recent months. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave or a late primary upset displacing the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar districts suggest limited realistic pathways for the Republican nominee to prevail.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문