Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,938 거래량
$15,938 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$15,938 거래량
$15,938 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$7,144 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$8,794 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$15,938종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,938종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan holds Massachusetts’ 3rd congressional district, which carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+11 and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election, with no Republican candidate positioned to mount a competitive challenge. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because structural factors—voter registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of a credible GOP contender—have historically produced lopsided results in similar districts. A late primary upset or major national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, but such outcomes remain remote given the district’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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