**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 63.5%** stems primarily from stalled momentum on Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner’s engagement, despite the market requiring all three specified milestones by December 31, 2026. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, engaged since August 2025, show clear wedding planning with reports pointing to a June 2026 date, boosting that leg. Tom Holland and Zendaya, engaged since late 2024, face unconfirmed rumors of a private ceremony already occurring, fueled by stylist comments, yet lack official verification. In contrast, Chalamet and Jenner have only discussed engagement privately with no public steps or announcements after three years together, leaving their outcome as the key swing factor. Upcoming red-carpet appearances and any official statements could shift sentiment before year-end.