Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson anchors Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Johnson secured 85.8% of the vote in the 2024 general election against limited opposition, reflecting the district's northwestern Louisiana base centered on Shreveport-Bossier City. With filing deadlines approaching in late 2025 and the nonpartisan primary set for April 2026 ahead of the November general, no Democratic challengers have emerged to alter the structural advantage. Trader consensus at 89.5% for Republicans aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and incumbency strength, though any late primary developments could test the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
10%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$870 거래량
90%
Democratic Party
$1,415 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson anchors Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Johnson secured 85.8% of the vote in the 2024 general election against limited opposition, reflecting the district's northwestern Louisiana base centered on Shreveport-Bossier City. With filing deadlines approaching in late 2025 and the nonpartisan primary set for April 2026 ahead of the November general, no Democratic challengers have emerged to alter the structural advantage. Trader consensus at 89.5% for Republicans aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and incumbency strength, though any late primary developments could test the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$2,285종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson anchors Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Johnson secured 85.8% of the vote in the 2024 general election against limited opposition, reflecting the district's northwestern Louisiana base centered on Shreveport-Bossier City. With filing deadlines approaching in late 2025 and the nonpartisan primary set for April 2026 ahead of the November general, no Democratic challengers have emerged to alter the structural advantage. Trader consensus at 89.5% for Republicans aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and incumbency strength, though any late primary developments could test the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,285종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson anchors Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+26 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Johnson secured 85.8% of the vote in the 2024 general election against limited opposition, reflecting the district's northwestern Louisiana base centered on Shreveport-Bossier City. With filing deadlines approaching in late 2025 and the nonpartisan primary set for April 2026 ahead of the November general, no Democratic challengers have emerged to alter the structural advantage. Trader consensus at 89.5% for Republicans aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and incumbency strength, though any late primary developments could test the margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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