This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, and subsequently extended by President Trump, remains in effect amid intermittent violations and stalled talks on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have accused the other of breaches, including a May 7 exchange of fire, while Iran has used the pause to rebuild military capacity and the US maintains a naval blockade. Recent statements from Trump indicate a memorandum of understanding is largely negotiated, potentially including a further 60-day truce extension, with input from Gulf states, though core disagreements persist and the arrangement has been described as fragile. Negotiations continue without a final agreement, leaving the duration of the current ceasefire dependent on upcoming diplomatic progress or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, and subsequently extended by President Trump, remains in effect amid intermittent violations and stalled talks on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have accused the other of breaches, including a May 7 exchange of fire, while Iran has used the pause to rebuild military capacity and the US maintains a naval blockade. Recent statements from Trump indicate a memorandum of understanding is largely negotiated, potentially including a further 60-day truce extension, with input from Gulf states, though core disagreements persist and the arrangement has been described as fragile. Negotiations continue without a final agreement, leaving the duration of the current ceasefire dependent on upcoming diplomatic progress or escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 23 2026
Iranian negotiators emphasize no compromise on national rights amid ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Pakistan’s Army Chief on May 23, stating Iran would not compromise on its national rights and that its armed forces had rebuilt capabilities during the ceasefire. This firm stance indicated ongoing tensions but did not derail ceasefire talks, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire holding.
May 23 2026
US, Iran, Pakistan near deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days with nuclear framework
May 23 surges to 97%27%
Financial Times reported that mediators were nearing a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish nuclear talks, boosting market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 23 2026
Trump signals ceasefire extension by 60 days with nuclear talks to follow
May 23 surges to 98%28%
President Trump indicated that negotiations were in the final stages of extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. This significant diplomatic progress boosted market confidence.
May 23 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated on May 23 that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 23 and beyond. This announcement helped push the market price to 100% Yes for May 23.
May 23 2026
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 98%28%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 24 and later dates.
May 23 2026
Reports indicate ceasefire extension between US and Iran likely by 60 days
May 25 surges to 97%44%
Mediators were reportedly close to securing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, further supporting market prices for the ceasefire continuing through May 25 and beyond.
May 23 2026
US and Iran in final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations, Trump says deal imminent
May 23 surges to 100%30%
On May 23, President Trump announced that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a high likelihood of continuation. This statement boosted market confidence, reflected in the sharp price increases for ceasefire continuation through May 23 and beyond.
May 23 2026
Mediators close to securing 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension with nuclear talks framework
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Reports on May 23 indicated that mediators, including Pakistan, were close to securing an agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. This development increased market optimism for the ceasefire holding through later dates such as May 24 and May 25.
May 23 2026
Trump claims Iran ceasefire deal largely negotiated with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 surges to 97%27%
On May 23, President Trump stated that the ceasefire deal with Iran was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during the ceasefire extension. This positive diplomatic signal contributed to the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 22 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, increasing market optimism for the ceasefire continuing through May 23 and beyond.
May 22 2026
Pakistani Army Chief visits Tehran to expedite US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 22 surges to 100%18%
On May 22, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to accelerate negotiations between the US and Iran, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This visit contributed to increased market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22, reflected in the price rising from 82% to 100%.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistan intensifies mediation efforts between US and Iran amid ceasefire
May 22 jumps to 92%13%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials to continue mediation efforts, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, and subsequently extended by President Trump, remains in effect amid intermittent violations and stalled talks on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have accused the other of breaches, including a May 7 exchange of fire, while Iran has used the pause to rebuild military capacity and the US maintains a naval blockade. Recent statements from Trump indicate a memorandum of understanding is largely negotiated, potentially including a further 60-day truce extension, with input from Gulf states, though core disagreements persist and the arrangement has been described as fragile. Negotiations continue without a final agreement, leaving the duration of the current ceasefire dependent on upcoming diplomatic progress or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, and subsequently extended by President Trump, remains in effect amid intermittent violations and stalled talks on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have accused the other of breaches, including a May 7 exchange of fire, while Iran has used the pause to rebuild military capacity and the US maintains a naval blockade. Recent statements from Trump indicate a memorandum of understanding is largely negotiated, potentially including a further 60-day truce extension, with input from Gulf states, though core disagreements persist and the arrangement has been described as fragile. Negotiations continue without a final agreement, leaving the duration of the current ceasefire dependent on upcoming diplomatic progress or escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 23 2026
Iranian negotiators emphasize no compromise on national rights amid ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Pakistan’s Army Chief on May 23, stating Iran would not compromise on its national rights and that its armed forces had rebuilt capabilities during the ceasefire. This firm stance indicated ongoing tensions but did not derail ceasefire talks, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire holding.
May 23 2026
US, Iran, Pakistan near deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days with nuclear framework
May 23 surges to 97%27%
Financial Times reported that mediators were nearing a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish nuclear talks, boosting market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 23 2026
Trump signals ceasefire extension by 60 days with nuclear talks to follow
May 23 surges to 98%28%
President Trump indicated that negotiations were in the final stages of extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. This significant diplomatic progress boosted market confidence.
May 23 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated on May 23 that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 23 and beyond. This announcement helped push the market price to 100% Yes for May 23.
May 23 2026
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 98%28%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 24 and later dates.
May 23 2026
Reports indicate ceasefire extension between US and Iran likely by 60 days
May 25 surges to 97%44%
Mediators were reportedly close to securing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, further supporting market prices for the ceasefire continuing through May 25 and beyond.
May 23 2026
US and Iran in final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations, Trump says deal imminent
May 23 surges to 100%30%
On May 23, President Trump announced that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a high likelihood of continuation. This statement boosted market confidence, reflected in the sharp price increases for ceasefire continuation through May 23 and beyond.
May 23 2026
Mediators close to securing 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension with nuclear talks framework
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Reports on May 23 indicated that mediators, including Pakistan, were close to securing an agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. This development increased market optimism for the ceasefire holding through later dates such as May 24 and May 25.
May 23 2026
Trump claims Iran ceasefire deal largely negotiated with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 surges to 97%27%
On May 23, President Trump stated that the ceasefire deal with Iran was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during the ceasefire extension. This positive diplomatic signal contributed to the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 22 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, increasing market optimism for the ceasefire continuing through May 23 and beyond.
May 22 2026
Pakistani Army Chief visits Tehran to expedite US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 22 surges to 100%18%
On May 22, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to accelerate negotiations between the US and Iran, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This visit contributed to increased market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22, reflected in the price rising from 82% to 100%.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistan intensifies mediation efforts between US and Iran amid ceasefire
May 22 jumps to 92%13%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials to continue mediation efforts, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
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외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
"이란의 휴전은...?"은 15개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 100%의 "May 23"이며, 이어서 100%의 "5월 20일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 100¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 100%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "이란의 휴전은...?"은 총 $22 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 May 20, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"이란의 휴전은...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 15개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"이란의 휴전은...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 100%의 "May 23"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 100%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 100%의 "5월 20일"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"이란의 휴전은...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "이란의 휴전은...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "이란의 휴전은...?"에 $22 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"이란의 휴전은...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "이란의 휴전은...?" 마켓에서 "May 23"의 100¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "May 23"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 100%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 100¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 0¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
이 마켓은 이벤트의 공식 결과가 결정되면 정산됩니다. 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에서 구체적인 정산 기준과 시기를 확인하세요.
"이란의 휴전은...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 208개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "이란의 휴전은...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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