The Republican nominee's commanding position in Indiana's 3rd congressional district reflects the seat's consistent partisan lean and the incumbent's primary victory on May 5, 2026. Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination against a single challenger, while Democrat Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed in her primary, setting up a November 3 general election contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party aligns with historical voting patterns in this solidly Republican district and the absence of competitive primary or general-election developments that would typically shift probabilities. Late-breaking factors capable of narrowing the gap include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific legal or personal issues, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the final months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,605 거래량
93%
Democratic Party
$2,202 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee's commanding position in Indiana's 3rd congressional district reflects the seat's consistent partisan lean and the incumbent's primary victory on May 5, 2026. Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination against a single challenger, while Democrat Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed in her primary, setting up a November 3 general election contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party aligns with historical voting patterns in this solidly Republican district and the absence of competitive primary or general-election developments that would typically shift probabilities. Late-breaking factors capable of narrowing the gap include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific legal or personal issues, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$4,807종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee's commanding position in Indiana's 3rd congressional district reflects the seat's consistent partisan lean and the incumbent's primary victory on May 5, 2026. Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination against a single challenger, while Democrat Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed in her primary, setting up a November 3 general election contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party aligns with historical voting patterns in this solidly Republican district and the absence of competitive primary or general-election developments that would typically shift probabilities. Late-breaking factors capable of narrowing the gap include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific legal or personal issues, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$4,807종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee's commanding position in Indiana's 3rd congressional district reflects the seat's consistent partisan lean and the incumbent's primary victory on May 5, 2026. Marlin Stutzman secured the GOP nomination against a single challenger, while Democrat Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed in her primary, setting up a November 3 general election contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican Party aligns with historical voting patterns in this solidly Republican district and the absence of competitive primary or general-election developments that would typically shift probabilities. Late-breaking factors capable of narrowing the gap include a significant national political shift, candidate-specific legal or personal issues, or unusually high turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the final months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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