The European Central Bank's March 2026 staff projections, which revised headline inflation upward to an average of 2.6 percent for the year due to energy-price shocks from the Middle East conflict, form the primary driver behind the strong trader consensus for at least one rate hike. Recent Governing Council meetings in March and April maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent while stressing a data-dependent approach and warning of second-round effects, with core inflation measures also rising. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed a June hike of 25 basis points, potentially followed by further tightening, as inflation risks outweigh the subdued 0.9 percent growth forecast. This positioning aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, reflecting real-money assessments of persistent upside pressures on prices through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$115,055 거래량
$115,055 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$115,055 거래량
$115,055 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's March 2026 staff projections, which revised headline inflation upward to an average of 2.6 percent for the year due to energy-price shocks from the Middle East conflict, form the primary driver behind the strong trader consensus for at least one rate hike. Recent Governing Council meetings in March and April maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent while stressing a data-dependent approach and warning of second-round effects, with core inflation measures also rising. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed a June hike of 25 basis points, potentially followed by further tightening, as inflation risks outweigh the subdued 0.9 percent growth forecast. This positioning aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, reflecting real-money assessments of persistent upside pressures on prices through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
거래량
$115,055종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's March 2026 staff projections, which revised headline inflation upward to an average of 2.6 percent for the year due to energy-price shocks from the Middle East conflict, form the primary driver behind the strong trader consensus for at least one rate hike. Recent Governing Council meetings in March and April maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent while stressing a data-dependent approach and warning of second-round effects, with core inflation measures also rising. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed a June hike of 25 basis points, potentially followed by further tightening, as inflation risks outweigh the subdued 0.9 percent growth forecast. This positioning aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, reflecting real-money assessments of persistent upside pressures on prices through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$115,055종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank's March 2026 staff projections, which revised headline inflation upward to an average of 2.6 percent for the year due to energy-price shocks from the Middle East conflict, form the primary driver behind the strong trader consensus for at least one rate hike. Recent Governing Council meetings in March and April maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent while stressing a data-dependent approach and warning of second-round effects, with core inflation measures also rising. Money-market pricing and economist surveys now embed a June hike of 25 basis points, potentially followed by further tightening, as inflation risks outweigh the subdued 0.9 percent growth forecast. This positioning aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, reflecting real-money assessments of persistent upside pressures on prices through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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