The heavily Democratic character of California's 43rd congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+27, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the 2026 House election. Incumbent Maxine Waters faces limited primary opposition in the June 2 top-two contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat safe for her party based on consistent past margins exceeding 70% in general elections. The single Republican candidate on the ballot faces structural barriers in a South Los Angeles district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Scenarios that could narrow these odds include an unexpected primary result advancing a weaker Democrat or unforeseen developments between the primary and November general election, though no such shifts have emerged in recent filings or campaign activity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,945 거래량
$22,945 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
6%
$22,945 거래량
$22,945 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,380 거래량
95%
공화당
$14,565 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic character of California's 43rd congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+27, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the 2026 House election. Incumbent Maxine Waters faces limited primary opposition in the June 2 top-two contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat safe for her party based on consistent past margins exceeding 70% in general elections. The single Republican candidate on the ballot faces structural barriers in a South Los Angeles district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Scenarios that could narrow these odds include an unexpected primary result advancing a weaker Democrat or unforeseen developments between the primary and November general election, though no such shifts have emerged in recent filings or campaign activity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
거래량
$22,945종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic character of California's 43rd congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+27, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the 2026 House election. Incumbent Maxine Waters faces limited primary opposition in the June 2 top-two contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat safe for her party based on consistent past margins exceeding 70% in general elections. The single Republican candidate on the ballot faces structural barriers in a South Los Angeles district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Scenarios that could narrow these odds include an unexpected primary result advancing a weaker Democrat or unforeseen developments between the primary and November general election, though no such shifts have emerged in recent filings or campaign activity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,945종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic character of California's 43rd congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+27, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the 2026 House election. Incumbent Maxine Waters faces limited primary opposition in the June 2 top-two contest, with all major forecasters rating the seat safe for her party based on consistent past margins exceeding 70% in general elections. The single Republican candidate on the ballot faces structural barriers in a South Los Angeles district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Scenarios that could narrow these odds include an unexpected primary result advancing a weaker Democrat or unforeseen developments between the primary and November general election, though no such shifts have emerged in recent filings or campaign activity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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