**Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% to win California's 43rd Congressional District House seat, driven by long-serving incumbent Maxine Waters' confirmed bid for re-election despite turning 88 this summer.** The urban district, spanning South Los Angeles with strong Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean of D+27, has delivered Waters consistent landslides, including 75% in 2024. Recent candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary signal no major challengers emerging, reinforcing the race's safe status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios to shift odds include Waters' health issues prompting withdrawal, a surprise primary upset yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen Republican national midterm wave, though historical precedents and district math present steep barriers. The general election follows November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,173 거래량
$22,173 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
6%
$22,173 거래량
$22,173 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,325 거래량
95%
공화당
$13,848 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% to win California's 43rd Congressional District House seat, driven by long-serving incumbent Maxine Waters' confirmed bid for re-election despite turning 88 this summer.** The urban district, spanning South Los Angeles with strong Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean of D+27, has delivered Waters consistent landslides, including 75% in 2024. Recent candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary signal no major challengers emerging, reinforcing the race's safe status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios to shift odds include Waters' health issues prompting withdrawal, a surprise primary upset yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen Republican national midterm wave, though historical precedents and district math present steep barriers. The general election follows November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
거래량
$22,173종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% to win California's 43rd Congressional District House seat, driven by long-serving incumbent Maxine Waters' confirmed bid for re-election despite turning 88 this summer.** The urban district, spanning South Los Angeles with strong Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean of D+27, has delivered Waters consistent landslides, including 75% in 2024. Recent candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary signal no major challengers emerging, reinforcing the race's safe status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios to shift odds include Waters' health issues prompting withdrawal, a surprise primary upset yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen Republican national midterm wave, though historical precedents and district math present steep barriers. The general election follows November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,173종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% to win California's 43rd Congressional District House seat, driven by long-serving incumbent Maxine Waters' confirmed bid for re-election despite turning 88 this summer.** The urban district, spanning South Los Angeles with strong Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean of D+27, has delivered Waters consistent landslides, including 75% in 2024. Recent candidate questionnaires ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary signal no major challengers emerging, reinforcing the race's safe status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios to shift odds include Waters' health issues prompting withdrawal, a surprise primary upset yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, or an unforeseen Republican national midterm wave, though historical precedents and district math present steep barriers. The general election follows November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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