Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$29,706 거래량
$29,706 거래량
2026.06.20
claude-opus-4-6
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-fable-5
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$29,706 거래량
$29,706 거래량
2026.06.20
claude-opus-4-6
$2,280 거래량
No
Other
$4,718 거래량
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$10,841 거래량
Yes
claude-fable-5
$11,866 거래량
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
거래량
$29,706종료일
2026.06.20마켓 개설일
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$29,706종료일
2026.06.20마켓 개설일
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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