Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's October 2025 M5 chip refresh—which offered only minor hardware upgrades like a more comfortable Dual Knit Band—failing to revive sluggish sales amid high price and limited ecosystem appeal. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's June 2025 roadmap indicates a pivot to lighter "Vision Air" and smart glasses models slated for 2027 or later, with Vision Pro 2 development reportedly paused or delayed beyond mid-2028, reflecting supply chain shifts and internal skepticism post-launch flop. Upcoming WWDC 2026 could tease software enhancements via visionOS updates, but a full successor hardware launch remains improbable without accelerated production; surprise regulatory approvals or ecosystem breakthroughs could still shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's October 2025 M5 chip refresh—which offered only minor hardware upgrades like a more comfortable Dual Knit Band—failing to revive sluggish sales amid high price and limited ecosystem appeal. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's June 2025 roadmap indicates a pivot to lighter "Vision Air" and smart glasses models slated for 2027 or later, with Vision Pro 2 development reportedly paused or delayed beyond mid-2028, reflecting supply chain shifts and internal skepticism post-launch flop. Upcoming WWDC 2026 could tease software enhancements via visionOS updates, but a full successor hardware launch remains improbable without accelerated production; surprise regulatory approvals or ecosystem breakthroughs could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$4,459종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's October 2025 M5 chip refresh—which offered only minor hardware upgrades like a more comfortable Dual Knit Band—failing to revive sluggish sales amid high price and limited ecosystem appeal. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's June 2025 roadmap indicates a pivot to lighter "Vision Air" and smart glasses models slated for 2027 or later, with Vision Pro 2 development reportedly paused or delayed beyond mid-2028, reflecting supply chain shifts and internal skepticism post-launch flop. Upcoming WWDC 2026 could tease software enhancements via visionOS updates, but a full successor hardware launch remains improbable without accelerated production; surprise regulatory approvals or ecosystem breakthroughs could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,459종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's October 2025 M5 chip refresh—which offered only minor hardware upgrades like a more comfortable Dual Knit Band—failing to revive sluggish sales amid high price and limited ecosystem appeal. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's June 2025 roadmap indicates a pivot to lighter "Vision Air" and smart glasses models slated for 2027 or later, with Vision Pro 2 development reportedly paused or delayed beyond mid-2028, reflecting supply chain shifts and internal skepticism post-launch flop. Upcoming WWDC 2026 could tease software enhancements via visionOS updates, but a full successor hardware launch remains improbable without accelerated production; surprise regulatory approvals or ecosystem breakthroughs could still shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문