President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin restoring Alcatraz as a federal prison represents the primary recent development, following his May 2025 directive to agencies including the Bureau of Prisons and DOJ. The proposal requires congressional appropriations and faces substantial logistical hurdles, including the island's deteriorated infrastructure, National Park Service oversight, and local opposition. No funding has been enacted, construction has not commenced, and historical timelines for similar federal prison projects indicate that full reopening within 2026 remains improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent "No" probability aligns with these procedural and practical constraints.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin restoring Alcatraz as a federal prison represents the primary recent development, following his May 2025 directive to agencies including the Bureau of Prisons and DOJ. The proposal requires congressional appropriations and faces substantial logistical hurdles, including the island's deteriorated infrastructure, National Park Service oversight, and local opposition. No funding has been enacted, construction has not commenced, and historical timelines for similar federal prison projects indicate that full reopening within 2026 remains improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent "No" probability aligns with these procedural and practical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
거래량
$1,152종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin restoring Alcatraz as a federal prison represents the primary recent development, following his May 2025 directive to agencies including the Bureau of Prisons and DOJ. The proposal requires congressional appropriations and faces substantial logistical hurdles, including the island's deteriorated infrastructure, National Park Service oversight, and local opposition. No funding has been enacted, construction has not commenced, and historical timelines for similar federal prison projects indicate that full reopening within 2026 remains improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent "No" probability aligns with these procedural and practical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,152종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin restoring Alcatraz as a federal prison represents the primary recent development, following his May 2025 directive to agencies including the Bureau of Prisons and DOJ. The proposal requires congressional appropriations and faces substantial logistical hurdles, including the island's deteriorated infrastructure, National Park Service oversight, and local opposition. No funding has been enacted, construction has not commenced, and historical timelines for similar federal prison projects indicate that full reopening within 2026 remains improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent "No" probability aligns with these procedural and practical constraints.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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