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icon for ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？
政治·イラン

ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？

icon for ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？
政治·イラン

ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？

はい

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$30,618 Vol.

はい

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$30,618 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached in mid-June 2026.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed the MOU alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The document addresses lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60 days of nuclear talks; a formal signing ceremony was set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva. **Vance has led aspects of the talks and publicly detailed the agreement in interviews on June 16, emphasizing no US funds to Iran and IAEA inspectors returning to dismantle enriched uranium stockpiles.** However, the initial signing was virtual/digital, with no confirmed in-person meetings or travel by Vance to Iran or third-party locations involving Iranian officials between June 18–20. Reports focus on ongoing technical negotiations rather than immediate high-level bilateral contact. **With the June 20 deadline only two days away and no verified schedule for Vance to attend the Geneva ceremony or conduct direct diplomacy, traders assess physical contact as unlikely.** The 67.5% implied probability on “No” reflects the compressed timeline, preference for virtual or indirect channels so far, and absence of any reported plans for Vance to shake hands with Iranian representatives before resolution. Late developments, such as an unscheduled appearance or rapid in-person escalation, remain possible but have not materialized in reporting through June 18.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.

The resolution source will be photo or video.
音量
$30,618
終了日
2026/06/20
マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached in mid-June 2026.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed the MOU alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The document addresses lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60 days of nuclear talks; a formal signing ceremony was set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva. **Vance has led aspects of the talks and publicly detailed the agreement in interviews on June 16, emphasizing no US funds to Iran and IAEA inspectors returning to dismantle enriched uranium stockpiles.** However, the initial signing was virtual/digital, with no confirmed in-person meetings or travel by Vance to Iran or third-party locations involving Iranian officials between June 18–20. Reports focus on ongoing technical negotiations rather than immediate high-level bilateral contact. **With the June 20 deadline only two days away and no verified schedule for Vance to attend the Geneva ceremony or conduct direct diplomacy, traders assess physical contact as unlikely.** The 67.5% implied probability on “No” reflects the compressed timeline, preference for virtual or indirect channels so far, and absence of any reported plans for Vance to shake hands with Iranian representatives before resolution. Late developments, such as an unscheduled appearance or rapid in-person escalation, remain possible but have not materialized in reporting through June 18.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.

The resolution source will be photo or video.
音量
$30,618
終了日
2026/06/20
マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ヴァンスは6月20日までにイランの高官と握手をするか？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？」は$30.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jun 15, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？」の現在のリーダーは「ヴァンスは6月20日までにイランの高官と握手をするか？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ヴァンス氏は6月20日までにイランの当局者と握手するか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。