Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$431,181 Vol.
2026/07/31
7月1日
はい
7月2日
はい
7月3日
はい
7月4日
はい
7月5日
はい
7月6日
はい
7月7日
いいえ
7月8日
はい
7月9日
いいえ
7月10日
いいえ
7月11日
はい
7月12日
はい
7月13日
はい
7月14日
はい
7月15日
はい
7月16日
いいえ
7月17日
はい
7月18日
はい
7月19日
はい
7月20日
いいえ
7月21日
はい
7月22日
はい
7月23日
はい
7月24日
はい
7月25日
いいえ
7月26日
はい
7月27日
はい
7月28日
はい
7月29日
はい
7月30日
いいえ
7月31日
はい
$431,181 Vol.
7月1日
$21,546 Vol.
はい
7月2日
$13,853 Vol.
はい
7月3日
$18,606 Vol.
はい
7月4日
$15,680 Vol.
はい
7月5日
$15,470 Vol.
はい
7月6日
$17,992 Vol.
はい
7月7日
$23,676 Vol.
いいえ
7月8日
$9,111 Vol.
はい
7月9日
$11,506 Vol.
いいえ
7月10日
$26,575 Vol.
いいえ
7月11日
$25,943 Vol.
はい
7月12日
$29,088 Vol.
はい
7月13日
$8,601 Vol.
はい
7月14日
$8,275 Vol.
はい
7月15日
$15,534 Vol.
はい
7月16日
$20,979 Vol.
いいえ
7月17日
$8,095 Vol.
はい
7月18日
$21,930 Vol.
はい
7月19日
$11,898 Vol.
はい
7月20日
$11,844 Vol.
いいえ
7月21日
$10,787 Vol.
はい
7月22日
$7,662 Vol.
はい
7月23日
$12,018 Vol.
はい
7月24日
$11,285 Vol.
はい
7月25日
$5,278 Vol.
いいえ
7月26日
$4,756 Vol.
はい
7月27日
$7,733 Vol.
はい
7月28日
$8,004 Vol.
はい
7月29日
$4,301 Vol.
はい
7月30日
$12,336 Vol.
いいえ
7月31日
$10,820 Vol.
はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ET
音量
$431,181終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$431,181終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 1:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Trump's frequent Truth Social activity, including direct commentary on foreign policy, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and political opponents, drives trader consensus on daily insult markets, with near-continuous streaks observed since mid-June 2026 pushing implied probabilities above 90% for additional instances. Primary catalysts include ongoing posts related to Iran developments, trade measures, and domestic policy that often feature critical language. As president, his platform remains the main channel for unfiltered statements, consistent with historical patterns of using social media to shape narratives. Upcoming factors that could influence outcomes include scheduled diplomatic events, legislative votes, or economic data releases that prompt responses. Markets reflect real-money trader assessments of these recurring dynamics rather than guarantees.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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