Iran has conducted repeated drone and missile strikes into Iraq's Kurdistan Region since February 2026, primarily targeting U.S.-linked sites and opposition groups, amid the broader regional conflict. The September 30 completion of the U.S. troop withdrawal has heightened concerns over a security vacuum in northern Iraq, prompting Iranian officials to pursue new bilateral security and economic agreements with Baghdad while maintaining pressure on Erbil. Iran-aligned militias continue resisting full disarmament deadlines now extended into 2027, with some factions forming splinter groups reportedly backed by Tehran. Recent high-level visits, including Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to Iran and Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani's October tour, underscore diplomatic coordination alongside ongoing military activity. Traders weigh these cross-border operations, militia dynamics, and post-withdrawal power shifts when assessing escalation risks.