Strong presales and early tracking for both Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three are fueling the 97.4% implied probability that Dunesday’s combined domestic opening weekend will top Barbenheimer’s roughly $235 million benchmark. Traders see the December 18, 2026 collision of two major franchises—Marvel’s multiverse finale and Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi trilogy closer—as a holiday event with outsized IMAX and premium-ticket demand, echoing how Barbie and Oppenheimer lifted each other in 2023. Recent marketing momentum, sold-out early IMAX screenings, and confirmed dual release dates reinforce the consensus. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include sharply negative reviews, a surprise competing release, or one title significantly underperforming expectations and dragging the combined total below the record.