The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日13% 確率
$99,519 Vol.
$99,519 Vol.
2027/12/31
13% 確率
$99,519 Vol.
$99,519 Vol.
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
音量
$99,519終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$99,519終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel genocide case remains in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029; oral hearings on the merits are therefore unlikely before late 2029 at the earliest. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity and war crimes involving starvation tactics but has not charged genocide. South Africa’s August 2026 dossier on provisional-measures compliance keeps pressure on interim obligations yet does not accelerate a final determination. These extended procedural timelines and narrower charges underpin trader consensus that an adverse genocide finding by either court before the end of 2027 is improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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