US-Iran diplomacy remains in a fragile post-conflict phase following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launched a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional issues. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, initial high-level sessions in Switzerland produced a roadmap and technical committees, but implementation faltered with mutual violations, renewed strikes, and public recriminations through July and into September. Iranian officials continue urging compliance with the interim framework while the Trump administration signals openness to further discussions alongside pressure tactics. No new formal rounds have been confirmed since midsummer, leaving attendance by senior US or Iranian figures—such as envoys, vice presidents, or foreign ministers—dependent on de-escalation signals, mediator progress, and resolution of sticking points like inspections and asset releases before year-end. Ongoing Lebanon-related tensions and domestic political calendars add layers of uncertainty to any resumption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$396,698 Vol.
2026/12/31
スティーブ・ウィトコフ
32%
アッバース・アラーグチ
28%
モハンマド・バゲル・ガリーバーフ
27%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
27%
J.D.バンス
25%
カゼム・ガリババディ
24%
イシャク・ダール
18%
ニック・スチュワート
18%
マジド・タクト＝ラヴァンチ
18%
バドル・ビン・ハマド・アル・ブサイディ
17%
モハンマド・ビン・アブドゥルラフマン・アール＝サーニー
12%
モハンマド・ビン・サルマン
12%
ラファエル・グロッシ
11%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
10%
マルコ・ルビオ
7%
エスマイル・ガアーニ
6%
ドナルド・トランプ
6%
ピート・ヘグセス
5%
アフマド・バヒディ
4%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
4%
$396,698 Vol.
スティーブ・ウィトコフ
$26,232 Vol.
32%
アッバース・アラーグチ
$9,176 Vol.
28%
モハンマド・バゲル・ガリーバーフ
$17,139 Vol.
27%
ジャレッド・クシュナー
$22,322 Vol.
27%
J.D.バンス
$27,350 Vol.
25%
カゼム・ガリババディ
$16,624 Vol.
24%
イシャク・ダール
$23,360 Vol.
18%
ニック・スチュワート
$12,950 Vol.
18%
マジド・タクト＝ラヴァンチ
$17,270 Vol.
18%
バドル・ビン・ハマド・アル・ブサイディ
$31,077 Vol.
17%
モハンマド・ビン・アブドゥルラフマン・アール＝サーニー
$40,153 Vol.
12%
モハンマド・ビン・サルマン
$5,526 Vol.
12%
ラファエル・グロッシ
$32,194 Vol.
11%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$24,252 Vol.
10%
マルコ・ルビオ
$13,732 Vol.
7%
エスマイル・ガアーニ
$11,490 Vol.
6%
ドナルド・トランプ
$9,179 Vol.
6%
ピート・ヘグセス
$20,123 Vol.
5%
アフマド・バヒディ
$14,361 Vol.
4%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$22,187 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains in a fragile post-conflict phase following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launched a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional issues. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, initial high-level sessions in Switzerland produced a roadmap and technical committees, but implementation faltered with mutual violations, renewed strikes, and public recriminations through July and into September. Iranian officials continue urging compliance with the interim framework while the Trump administration signals openness to further discussions alongside pressure tactics. No new formal rounds have been confirmed since midsummer, leaving attendance by senior US or Iranian figures—such as envoys, vice presidents, or foreign ministers—dependent on de-escalation signals, mediator progress, and resolution of sticking points like inspections and asset releases before year-end. Ongoing Lebanon-related tensions and domestic political calendars add layers of uncertainty to any resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
音量
$396,698終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains in a fragile post-conflict phase following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launched a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional issues. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, initial high-level sessions in Switzerland produced a roadmap and technical committees, but implementation faltered with mutual violations, renewed strikes, and public recriminations through July and into September. Iranian officials continue urging compliance with the interim framework while the Trump administration signals openness to further discussions alongside pressure tactics. No new formal rounds have been confirmed since midsummer, leaving attendance by senior US or Iranian figures—such as envoys, vice presidents, or foreign ministers—dependent on de-escalation signals, mediator progress, and resolution of sticking points like inspections and asset releases before year-end. Ongoing Lebanon-related tensions and domestic political calendars add layers of uncertainty to any resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$396,698終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains in a fragile post-conflict phase following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launched a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional issues. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, initial high-level sessions in Switzerland produced a roadmap and technical committees, but implementation faltered with mutual violations, renewed strikes, and public recriminations through July and into September. Iranian officials continue urging compliance with the interim framework while the Trump administration signals openness to further discussions alongside pressure tactics. No new formal rounds have been confirmed since midsummer, leaving attendance by senior US or Iranian figures—such as envoys, vice presidents, or foreign ministers—dependent on de-escalation signals, mediator progress, and resolution of sticking points like inspections and asset releases before year-end. Ongoing Lebanon-related tensions and domestic political calendars add layers of uncertainty to any resumption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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