Google's Veo 3.1 and related Gemini Omni models anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability, driven by consistent leadership in 2026 benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and native 4K output. Recent updates have reinforced its edge in cinematic quality and ecosystem integration, outpacing rivals on overall production workflows. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 holds the next-highest odds at 13% thanks to strong image-to-video performance and motion control, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou competes on value and multi-shot capabilities. OpenAI's Sora line has been fully deprecated, explaining its near-zero odds, as the space consolidates around a handful of frontier models with no major new releases imminent before end-October resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 66%
バイトダンス 13%
アリババ／アリババ-ATH 3.4%
Meta 1.2%
$37,294 Vol.
$37,294 Vol.
2026/10/31
66%
バイトダンス
13%
アリババ／アリババ-ATH
3%
Meta
1%
Pixverse
1%
テンセント
1%
KlingAI
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
カンディンスキー
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Runway
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Google 66%
バイトダンス 13%
アリババ／アリババ-ATH 3.4%
Meta 1.2%
$37,294 Vol.
$37,294 Vol.
2026/10/31
$25,122 Vol.
66%
バイトダンス
$5,091 Vol.
13%
アリババ／アリババ-ATH
$772 Vol.
3%
Meta
$502 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$426 Vol.
1%
テンセント
$466 Vol.
1%
KlingAI
$578 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$351 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$509 Vol.
<1%
カンディンスキー
$426 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$427 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$470 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$443 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$494 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$418 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$426 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$373 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and related Gemini Omni models anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability, driven by consistent leadership in 2026 benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and native 4K output. Recent updates have reinforced its edge in cinematic quality and ecosystem integration, outpacing rivals on overall production workflows. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 holds the next-highest odds at 13% thanks to strong image-to-video performance and motion control, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou competes on value and multi-shot capabilities. OpenAI's Sora line has been fully deprecated, explaining its near-zero odds, as the space consolidates around a handful of frontier models with no major new releases imminent before end-October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
音量
$37,294終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and related Gemini Omni models anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability, driven by consistent leadership in 2026 benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and native 4K output. Recent updates have reinforced its edge in cinematic quality and ecosystem integration, outpacing rivals on overall production workflows. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 holds the next-highest odds at 13% thanks to strong image-to-video performance and motion control, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou competes on value and multi-shot capabilities. OpenAI's Sora line has been fully deprecated, explaining its near-zero odds, as the space consolidates around a handful of frontier models with no major new releases imminent before end-October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$37,294終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 and related Gemini Omni models anchor the 65.5% market-implied probability, driven by consistent leadership in 2026 benchmarks for prompt adherence, native synchronized audio, and native 4K output. Recent updates have reinforced its edge in cinematic quality and ecosystem integration, outpacing rivals on overall production workflows. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 holds the next-highest odds at 13% thanks to strong image-to-video performance and motion control, while Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou competes on value and multi-shot capabilities. OpenAI's Sora line has been fully deprecated, explaining its near-zero odds, as the space consolidates around a handful of frontier models with no major new releases imminent before end-October resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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