Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release has driven the 91.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 evaluations, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and multilingual tasks that define the benchmark. This edge reflects sustained frontier leadership over OpenAI's GPT-6 variants and other labs, with traders viewing Anthropic's iterative improvements and benchmark consistency as decisive through October. A late-month model drop from OpenAI or Google could still narrow the gap if it demonstrates superior results on LiveBench's objective tasks, though current verified data shows limited near-term disruption risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 88%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
$19,723 Vol.
$19,723 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
7%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 88%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
$19,723 Vol.
$19,723 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
$8,372 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$2,824 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$427 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$485 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$378 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$457 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$491 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$464 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$452 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$437 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$425 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$473 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$474 Vol.
<1%
$403 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$486 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$485 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$438 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$437 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$417 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$435 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release has driven the 91.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 evaluations, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and multilingual tasks that define the benchmark. This edge reflects sustained frontier leadership over OpenAI's GPT-6 variants and other labs, with traders viewing Anthropic's iterative improvements and benchmark consistency as decisive through October. A late-month model drop from OpenAI or Google could still narrow the gap if it demonstrates superior results on LiveBench's objective tasks, though current verified data shows limited near-term disruption risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
音量
$19,723終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release has driven the 91.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 evaluations, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and multilingual tasks that define the benchmark. This edge reflects sustained frontier leadership over OpenAI's GPT-6 variants and other labs, with traders viewing Anthropic's iterative improvements and benchmark consistency as decisive through October. A late-month model drop from OpenAI or Google could still narrow the gap if it demonstrates superior results on LiveBench's objective tasks, though current verified data shows limited near-term disruption risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
音量
$19,723終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 release has driven the 91.5% market-implied odds by posting the highest overall LiveBench scores in early September 2026 evaluations, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and multilingual tasks that define the benchmark. This edge reflects sustained frontier leadership over OpenAI's GPT-6 variants and other labs, with traders viewing Anthropic's iterative improvements and benchmark consistency as decisive through October. A late-month model drop from OpenAI or Google could still narrow the gap if it demonstrates superior results on LiveBench's objective tasks, though current verified data shows limited near-term disruption risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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