Anthropic’s strong 90.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5-series models posting leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding and related agentic evaluations, building on established advantages in tool use, long-horizon reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks. Traders see sustained edge from iterative training focused on code quality and efficiency, with proprietary releases in mid-2026 widening gaps over most competitors. OpenAI’s GPT variants sit at just 6.3% amid narrower leads in independent runs. A new flagship from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek before end-October, or a LiveBench refresh introducing harder contamination-resistant questions, could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns and current benchmark margins suggest limited near-term disruption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 6.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,239 Vol.
$21,239 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
90%
OpenAI
6%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
アリババ
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
テンセント
<1%
StepFun
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 6.3%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,239 Vol.
$21,239 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
$9,249 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$3,089 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$657 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$553 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$484 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$297 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s strong 90.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5-series models posting leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding and related agentic evaluations, building on established advantages in tool use, long-horizon reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks. Traders see sustained edge from iterative training focused on code quality and efficiency, with proprietary releases in mid-2026 widening gaps over most competitors. OpenAI’s GPT variants sit at just 6.3% amid narrower leads in independent runs. A new flagship from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek before end-October, or a LiveBench refresh introducing harder contamination-resistant questions, could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns and current benchmark margins suggest limited near-term disruption.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
音量
$21,239終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s strong 90.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5-series models posting leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding and related agentic evaluations, building on established advantages in tool use, long-horizon reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks. Traders see sustained edge from iterative training focused on code quality and efficiency, with proprietary releases in mid-2026 widening gaps over most competitors. OpenAI’s GPT variants sit at just 6.3% amid narrower leads in independent runs. A new flagship from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek before end-October, or a LiveBench refresh introducing harder contamination-resistant questions, could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns and current benchmark margins suggest limited near-term disruption.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
音量
$21,239終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s strong 90.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5-series models posting leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding and related agentic evaluations, building on established advantages in tool use, long-horizon reasoning, and SWE-bench-style tasks. Traders see sustained edge from iterative training focused on code quality and efficiency, with proprietary releases in mid-2026 widening gaps over most competitors. OpenAI’s GPT variants sit at just 6.3% amid narrower leads in independent runs. A new flagship from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek before end-October, or a LiveBench refresh introducing harder contamination-resistant questions, could narrow the gap, though historical release patterns and current benchmark margins suggest limited near-term disruption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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