Anthropic’s overwhelming 95% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that its latest large language model maintains a clear lead in overall capability and the specific “style control” criteria heading into end-of-August resolution. Recent model releases, internal scaling updates, and third-party benchmark results have reinforced its competitive edge over OpenAI, Google, and others, with traders viewing sustained performance gaps as unlikely to close in the remaining weeks. The compressed timeline to resolution limits opportunities for meaningful catch-up, though realistic challengers include an unexpected late-August release from a rival lab or a sudden shift in evaluation methodology that alters how “#1” is determined.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.5%
Google 2.3%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 Vol.
$23,441 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
アリババ
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
シンキー
<1%
美団
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
テンセント
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.5%
Google 2.3%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 Vol.
$23,441 Vol.
2026/08/31
Anthropic
$4,999 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 Vol.
3%
$2,046 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$608 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$802 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$908 Vol.
<1%
シンキー
$330 Vol.
<1%
美団
$939 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$330 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
テンセント
$891 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s overwhelming 95% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that its latest large language model maintains a clear lead in overall capability and the specific “style control” criteria heading into end-of-August resolution. Recent model releases, internal scaling updates, and third-party benchmark results have reinforced its competitive edge over OpenAI, Google, and others, with traders viewing sustained performance gaps as unlikely to close in the remaining weeks. The compressed timeline to resolution limits opportunities for meaningful catch-up, though realistic challengers include an unexpected late-August release from a rival lab or a sudden shift in evaluation methodology that alters how “#1” is determined.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
音量
$23,441終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s overwhelming 95% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that its latest large language model maintains a clear lead in overall capability and the specific “style control” criteria heading into end-of-August resolution. Recent model releases, internal scaling updates, and third-party benchmark results have reinforced its competitive edge over OpenAI, Google, and others, with traders viewing sustained performance gaps as unlikely to close in the remaining weeks. The compressed timeline to resolution limits opportunities for meaningful catch-up, though realistic challengers include an unexpected late-August release from a rival lab or a sudden shift in evaluation methodology that alters how “#1” is determined.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$23,441終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic’s overwhelming 95% market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that its latest large language model maintains a clear lead in overall capability and the specific “style control” criteria heading into end-of-August resolution. Recent model releases, internal scaling updates, and third-party benchmark results have reinforced its competitive edge over OpenAI, Google, and others, with traders viewing sustained performance gaps as unlikely to close in the remaining weeks. The compressed timeline to resolution limits opportunities for meaningful catch-up, though realistic challengers include an unexpected late-August release from a rival lab or a sudden shift in evaluation methodology that alters how “#1” is determined.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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