Persistent high mortgage rates near 6.4% and subdued buyer demand amid slower job growth, lower consumer confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty have kept US median home values largely flat or modestly lower in 2026. Zillow’s ZHVI stood at approximately $373,000 through June with minimal year-over-year gains, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $399,000–$411,000, reflecting tight inventory from the rate lock-in effect and limited new supply. These conditions underpin the market’s strong 53% implied probability on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30, as traders price in continued stability rather than meaningful appreciation. Limited near-term catalysts, including any August housing data releases, are unlikely to shift the trajectory before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$419K未満 53.3%
$419K - $426K 32.2%
$426K~$433K 7.8%
$433K - $440K 2.7%
$49,490 Vol.
$49,490 Vol.
$419K未満
53%
$419K - $426K
30%
$426K~$433K
8%
$433K - $440K
3%
44万ドル〜44万7,000ドル
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
454,000ドル以上
<1%
$419K未満 53.3%
$419K - $426K 32.2%
$426K~$433K 7.8%
$433K - $440K 2.7%
$49,490 Vol.
$49,490 Vol.
$419K未満
53%
$419K - $426K
30%
$426K~$433K
8%
$433K - $440K
3%
44万ドル〜44万7,000ドル
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
454,000ドル以上
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
マーケット開始日: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high mortgage rates near 6.4% and subdued buyer demand amid slower job growth, lower consumer confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty have kept US median home values largely flat or modestly lower in 2026. Zillow’s ZHVI stood at approximately $373,000 through June with minimal year-over-year gains, while Redfin and Census median sale prices hovered around $399,000–$411,000, reflecting tight inventory from the rate lock-in effect and limited new supply. These conditions underpin the market’s strong 53% implied probability on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30, as traders price in continued stability rather than meaningful appreciation. Limited near-term catalysts, including any August housing data releases, are unlikely to shift the trajectory before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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