Recent US sanctions enforcement and a naval blockade have halted Iranian oil exports, sharply reducing foreign currency inflows and fueling rial depreciation amid inflation above 70 percent. Central bank interventions supplying up to $2 billion have narrowed volatility and stabilized the free-market rate near 2.65 million rials per dollar in mid-October after peaks above 2.7 million. Traders see limited near-term reversal without eased restrictions or higher oil revenue, while persistent capital flight and import demand support further weakening. The balanced probabilities across the 2.0–3.5 million bands reflect uncertainty over whether December conditions hold near current levels or shift with ongoing policy responses, seasonal factors, or external diplomatic developments.