Sustained U.S. economic expansion underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027, with Q2 2026 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in August amid steady payroll gains. Traders weigh resilient private domestic demand and AI-related capital spending against elevated inflation near 3.3% year-over-year and energy price pressures from geopolitical supply risks. Forward-looking models assign low near-term recession odds, though consensus forecasts flag potential downside from slower AI investment growth or higher oil prices into 2027. Key catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, September CPI and employment data, and Q3 GDP releases that could shift rate expectations and risk sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
32% 確率
新規
新規
2027/12/31
はい
32% 確率
新規
新規
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productSustained U.S. economic expansion underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027, with Q2 2026 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in August amid steady payroll gains. Traders weigh resilient private domestic demand and AI-related capital spending against elevated inflation near 3.3% year-over-year and energy price pressures from geopolitical supply risks. Forward-looking models assign low near-term recession odds, though consensus forecasts flag potential downside from slower AI investment growth or higher oil prices into 2027. Key catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, September CPI and employment data, and Q3 GDP releases that could shift rate expectations and risk sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
音量
$7,784終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productSustained U.S. economic expansion underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027, with Q2 2026 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in August amid steady payroll gains. Traders weigh resilient private domestic demand and AI-related capital spending against elevated inflation near 3.3% year-over-year and energy price pressures from geopolitical supply risks. Forward-looking models assign low near-term recession odds, though consensus forecasts flag potential downside from slower AI investment growth or higher oil prices into 2027. Key catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, September CPI and employment data, and Q3 GDP releases that could shift rate expectations and risk sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
音量
$7,784終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Sustained U.S. economic expansion underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027, with Q2 2026 real GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and the unemployment rate holding near 4.1% in August amid steady payroll gains. Traders weigh resilient private domestic demand and AI-related capital spending against elevated inflation near 3.3% year-over-year and energy price pressures from geopolitical supply risks. Forward-looking models assign low near-term recession odds, though consensus forecasts flag potential downside from slower AI investment growth or higher oil prices into 2027. Key catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, September CPI and employment data, and Q3 GDP releases that could shift rate expectations and risk sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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