Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking at 3.3% for Q2 2026 contrasts with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' 2.1% estimate and the 1.6% Q1 print, keeping the distribution of Polymarket outcomes tightly clustered between 2.0% and 3.5%. A resilient labor market—May nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—supports moderate growth, yet surging headline inflation to around 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, raises downside risks to consumer spending. Elevated Treasury yields and a data-dependent Fed stance, with the June FOMC widely expected to hold rates, further cloud the path. Traders price in this balance of solid momentum against geopolitical and tariff-related headwinds, with final Q2 data releases likely to resolve the narrow spreads.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 23%
3.0–3.5% 20%
≥3.5% 16%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
<1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
15%
2.0–2.5%
28%
2.5–3.0%
23%
3.0–3.5%
20%
≥3.5%
16%
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 23%
3.0–3.5% 20%
≥3.5% 16%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
<1.0%
$1,105 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$729 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$743 Vol.
15%
2.0–2.5%
$1,276 Vol.
28%
2.5–3.0%
$794 Vol.
23%
3.0–3.5%
$887 Vol.
20%
≥3.5%
$948 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking at 3.3% for Q2 2026 contrasts with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' 2.1% estimate and the 1.6% Q1 print, keeping the distribution of Polymarket outcomes tightly clustered between 2.0% and 3.5%. A resilient labor market—May nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—supports moderate growth, yet surging headline inflation to around 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, raises downside risks to consumer spending. Elevated Treasury yields and a data-dependent Fed stance, with the June FOMC widely expected to hold rates, further cloud the path. Traders price in this balance of solid momentum against geopolitical and tariff-related headwinds, with final Q2 data releases likely to resolve the narrow spreads.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
音量
$6,481終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking at 3.3% for Q2 2026 contrasts with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' 2.1% estimate and the 1.6% Q1 print, keeping the distribution of Polymarket outcomes tightly clustered between 2.0% and 3.5%. A resilient labor market—May nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—supports moderate growth, yet surging headline inflation to around 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, raises downside risks to consumer spending. Elevated Treasury yields and a data-dependent Fed stance, with the June FOMC widely expected to hold rates, further cloud the path. Traders price in this balance of solid momentum against geopolitical and tariff-related headwinds, with final Q2 data releases likely to resolve the narrow spreads.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
音量
$6,481終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking at 3.3% for Q2 2026 contrasts with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' 2.1% estimate and the 1.6% Q1 print, keeping the distribution of Polymarket outcomes tightly clustered between 2.0% and 3.5%. A resilient labor market—May nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%—supports moderate growth, yet surging headline inflation to around 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, raises downside risks to consumer spending. Elevated Treasury yields and a data-dependent Fed stance, with the June FOMC widely expected to hold rates, further cloud the path. Traders price in this balance of solid momentum against geopolitical and tariff-related headwinds, with final Q2 data releases likely to resolve the narrow spreads.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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