**Traders assign an 78.5% probability to “No” on a formal US announcement of a permanent military base in Israel during 2026, reflecting the absence of any such declaration despite ongoing strategic discussions.** Following Iranian strikes that damaged multiple Gulf facilities during the 2026 conflict, Pentagon and CENTCOM reviews have examined shifting assets westward, including expanded use of sites like Ovda Air Base or new Negev compounds for refueling, logistics, and joint operations. Temporary deployments of US tankers and personnel have occurred, and a smaller logistics support area near Gaza has been established for stabilization efforts. However, as of early September, official statements and reporting confirm only existing limited facilities such as Site 512, with no sovereign US base announced. Political, budgetary, and alliance considerations continue to favor enhanced cooperation and temporary presence over a permanent basing announcement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
22% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
22% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. **Traders assign an 78.5% probability to “No” on a formal US announcement of a permanent military base in Israel during 2026, reflecting the absence of any such declaration despite ongoing strategic discussions.**
Following Iranian strikes that damaged multiple Gulf facilities during the 2026 conflict, Pentagon and CENTCOM reviews have examined shifting assets westward, including expanded use of sites like Ovda Air Base or new Negev compounds for refueling, logistics, and joint operations. Temporary deployments of US tankers and personnel have occurred, and a smaller logistics support area near Gaza has been established for stabilization efforts. However, as of early September, official statements and reporting confirm only existing limited facilities such as Site 512, with no sovereign US base announced. Political, budgetary, and alliance considerations continue to favor enhanced cooperation and temporary presence over a permanent basing announcement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$554終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. **Traders assign an 78.5% probability to “No” on a formal US announcement of a permanent military base in Israel during 2026, reflecting the absence of any such declaration despite ongoing strategic discussions.**
Following Iranian strikes that damaged multiple Gulf facilities during the 2026 conflict, Pentagon and CENTCOM reviews have examined shifting assets westward, including expanded use of sites like Ovda Air Base or new Negev compounds for refueling, logistics, and joint operations. Temporary deployments of US tankers and personnel have occurred, and a smaller logistics support area near Gaza has been established for stabilization efforts. However, as of early September, official statements and reporting confirm only existing limited facilities such as Site 512, with no sovereign US base announced. Political, budgetary, and alliance considerations continue to favor enhanced cooperation and temporary presence over a permanent basing announcement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
音量
$554終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 78.5% probability to “No” on a formal US announcement of a permanent military base in Israel during 2026, reflecting the absence of any such declaration despite ongoing strategic discussions.** Following Iranian strikes that damaged multiple Gulf facilities during the 2026 conflict, Pentagon and CENTCOM reviews have examined shifting assets westward, including expanded use of sites like Ovda Air Base or new Negev compounds for refueling, logistics, and joint operations. Temporary deployments of US tankers and personnel have occurred, and a smaller logistics support area near Gaza has been established for stabilization efforts. However, as of early September, official statements and reporting confirm only existing limited facilities such as Site 512, with no sovereign US base announced. Political, budgetary, and alliance considerations continue to favor enhanced cooperation and temporary presence over a permanent basing announcement by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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