Mayes Middleton holds a strong lead in the Texas attorney general race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in statewide contests and his victory in a competitive GOP primary runoff. Middleton defeated U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May runoff after emphasizing alignment with President Trump, while Democrat Nathan Johnson advanced from his party's runoff. Recent polling averages show Middleton ahead by roughly three points with about a month until the November 3 general election, though the margin remains narrower than historical norms for the office. Johnson's statewide advertising push focuses on depoliticizing the role, but trader pricing reflects the structural advantages for the Republican nominee in an open-seat contest following Ken Paxton's departure.
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