Persistent conflict since late February 2026, marked by Iranian attacks, naval mines, and surging war-risk premiums now 15–30 times peacetime levels, has kept Strait of Hormuz commercial transits at roughly 6–10% of the pre-crisis average of 74–85 vessels daily. Independent tracking shows only single-digit daily crossings in mid-October amid record attack volumes, with Brent crude holding near $110 per barrel and oil flows down sharply. Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability to “No” because normalization within the next two weeks would require an abrupt security turnaround that current conditions and recent escalations make improbable. Tail risks include rapid diplomatic de-escalation or verified ceasefire enabling escorted resumption of routine traffic before month-end.