Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness LP endured steep July 2026 losses on leveraged semiconductor and infrastructure positions, triggering margin calls that forced a fire sale of its entire public equity book to Citadel and reduced assets from roughly $45 billion to around $10 billion. The fund retained its multibillion-dollar private portfolio, including a major Anthropic stake, and has since stabilized without announcing any wind-down or full return of outside capital. As of early September, it resumed public-market activity through large call options on AI names such as AMD, CoreWeave, and SK Hynix while securing a new prime broker and deploying fresh private capital. With resolution tied to a December 31, 2026 deadline, traders are watching for any leadership statements or regulatory signals that could shift the low implied probability of a formal shutdown.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$147,853 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
7%
$147,853 Vol.
12月31日
$81,682 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness LP endured steep July 2026 losses on leveraged semiconductor and infrastructure positions, triggering margin calls that forced a fire sale of its entire public equity book to Citadel and reduced assets from roughly $45 billion to around $10 billion. The fund retained its multibillion-dollar private portfolio, including a major Anthropic stake, and has since stabilized without announcing any wind-down or full return of outside capital. As of early September, it resumed public-market activity through large call options on AI names such as AMD, CoreWeave, and SK Hynix while securing a new prime broker and deploying fresh private capital. With resolution tied to a December 31, 2026 deadline, traders are watching for any leadership statements or regulatory signals that could shift the low implied probability of a formal shutdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
音量
$147,853終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness LP endured steep July 2026 losses on leveraged semiconductor and infrastructure positions, triggering margin calls that forced a fire sale of its entire public equity book to Citadel and reduced assets from roughly $45 billion to around $10 billion. The fund retained its multibillion-dollar private portfolio, including a major Anthropic stake, and has since stabilized without announcing any wind-down or full return of outside capital. As of early September, it resumed public-market activity through large call options on AI names such as AMD, CoreWeave, and SK Hynix while securing a new prime broker and deploying fresh private capital. With resolution tied to a December 31, 2026 deadline, traders are watching for any leadership statements or regulatory signals that could shift the low implied probability of a formal shutdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$147,853終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness LP endured steep July 2026 losses on leveraged semiconductor and infrastructure positions, triggering margin calls that forced a fire sale of its entire public equity book to Citadel and reduced assets from roughly $45 billion to around $10 billion. The fund retained its multibillion-dollar private portfolio, including a major Anthropic stake, and has since stabilized without announcing any wind-down or full return of outside capital. As of early September, it resumed public-market activity through large call options on AI names such as AMD, CoreWeave, and SK Hynix while securing a new prime broker and deploying fresh private capital. With resolution tied to a December 31, 2026 deadline, traders are watching for any leadership statements or regulatory signals that could shift the low implied probability of a formal shutdown.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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