Analyst forecasts for China's September consumer price index center on a modest rebound to around 1% year-over-year, up from August's 0.8% reading, primarily due to seasonal food price gains in pork and produce alongside favorable base effects. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued consumption, and a struggling property sector continue to limit broader price pressures, keeping overall inflation low. Recent manufacturing PMI data showing a return to expansion and targeted policy support for credit and housing have not yet translated into stronger consumer prices. These factors align with trader positioning favoring the 0.9-1.0% outcome as the consensus view, while higher readings reflect potential upside from energy or seasonal volatility.
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