OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting its recent gains in agent-specific benchmarks such as Agents' Last Exam, BrowseComp, and Terminal-Bench where models like GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra lead or rank near the top. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5 variants continue to dominate broader coding and agentic leaderboards, keeping its probability lower but still material. Fresh September releases from both labs, including OpenAI’s emphasis on multi-agent orchestration, computer-use capabilities, and tool integration, have reinforced trader views that OpenAI is closing gaps faster than rivals like Moonshot, Google, or DeepSeek. With the resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard on October 31, further model updates or benchmark shifts in the next seven weeks remain the key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 82%
アンソロピック 13%
ムーンショット 5%
Google 2.6%
$33,742 Vol.
$33,742 Vol.
2026/10/31
OpenAI
82%
アンソロピック
13%
ムーンショット
5%
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Amazon
1%
美団
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
アリババ
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
OpenAI 82%
アンソロピック 13%
ムーンショット 5%
Google 2.6%
$33,742 Vol.
$33,742 Vol.
2026/10/31
OpenAI
$12,525 Vol.
82%
アンソロピック
$4,299 Vol.
13%
ムーンショット
$7,664 Vol.
5%
$1,522 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$700 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$613 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$594 Vol.
1%
美団
$518 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$621 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$586 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$550 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$543 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$548 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$473 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$511 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$553 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$521 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting its recent gains in agent-specific benchmarks such as Agents' Last Exam, BrowseComp, and Terminal-Bench where models like GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra lead or rank near the top. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5 variants continue to dominate broader coding and agentic leaderboards, keeping its probability lower but still material. Fresh September releases from both labs, including OpenAI’s emphasis on multi-agent orchestration, computer-use capabilities, and tool integration, have reinforced trader views that OpenAI is closing gaps faster than rivals like Moonshot, Google, or DeepSeek. With the resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard on October 31, further model updates or benchmark shifts in the next seven weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
音量
$33,742終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting its recent gains in agent-specific benchmarks such as Agents' Last Exam, BrowseComp, and Terminal-Bench where models like GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra lead or rank near the top. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5 variants continue to dominate broader coding and agentic leaderboards, keeping its probability lower but still material. Fresh September releases from both labs, including OpenAI’s emphasis on multi-agent orchestration, computer-use capabilities, and tool integration, have reinforced trader views that OpenAI is closing gaps faster than rivals like Moonshot, Google, or DeepSeek. With the resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard on October 31, further model updates or benchmark shifts in the next seven weeks remain the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$33,742終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, reflecting its recent gains in agent-specific benchmarks such as Agents' Last Exam, BrowseComp, and Terminal-Bench where models like GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra lead or rank near the top. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, Fable 5.1, and Mythos 5 variants continue to dominate broader coding and agentic leaderboards, keeping its probability lower but still material. Fresh September releases from both labs, including OpenAI’s emphasis on multi-agent orchestration, computer-use capabilities, and tool integration, have reinforced trader views that OpenAI is closing gaps faster than rivals like Moonshot, Google, or DeepSeek. With the resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard on October 31, further model updates or benchmark shifts in the next seven weeks remain the key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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