**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) reached the United States in June 2026 with the first confirmed case in a Texas calf, followed by a handful of additional detections primarily in livestock.** USDA-APHIS has led containment using sterile insect releases, enhanced surveillance, and the existing North American screwworm eradication program, keeping confirmed U.S. cases low and risk to animals and people very low according to CDC and APHIS updates through mid-August 2026. State-level disaster declarations occurred in Texas and Florida, and HHS issued an earlier emergency use authorization for certain animal drugs, but no nationwide federal emergency declaration has followed. Trader sentiment reflects the limited geographic spread, successful historical precedent for eradication, and ongoing model-driven monitoring, with odds likely hinging on whether case numbers or economic impacts escalate enough to trigger presidential action before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/12/31
August 30
52%
10月31日
45%
December 31
46%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
52%
10月31日
$0 Vol.
45%
December 31
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) reached the United States in June 2026 with the first confirmed case in a Texas calf, followed by a handful of additional detections primarily in livestock.** USDA-APHIS has led containment using sterile insect releases, enhanced surveillance, and the existing North American screwworm eradication program, keeping confirmed U.S. cases low and risk to animals and people very low according to CDC and APHIS updates through mid-August 2026. State-level disaster declarations occurred in Texas and Florida, and HHS issued an earlier emergency use authorization for certain animal drugs, but no nationwide federal emergency declaration has followed. Trader sentiment reflects the limited geographic spread, successful historical precedent for eradication, and ongoing model-driven monitoring, with odds likely hinging on whether case numbers or economic impacts escalate enough to trigger presidential action before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
音量
$1,442終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) reached the United States in June 2026 with the first confirmed case in a Texas calf, followed by a handful of additional detections primarily in livestock.** USDA-APHIS has led containment using sterile insect releases, enhanced surveillance, and the existing North American screwworm eradication program, keeping confirmed U.S. cases low and risk to animals and people very low according to CDC and APHIS updates through mid-August 2026. State-level disaster declarations occurred in Texas and Florida, and HHS issued an earlier emergency use authorization for certain animal drugs, but no nationwide federal emergency declaration has followed. Trader sentiment reflects the limited geographic spread, successful historical precedent for eradication, and ongoing model-driven monitoring, with odds likely hinging on whether case numbers or economic impacts escalate enough to trigger presidential action before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,442終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) reached the United States in June 2026 with the first confirmed case in a Texas calf, followed by a handful of additional detections primarily in livestock.** USDA-APHIS has led containment using sterile insect releases, enhanced surveillance, and the existing North American screwworm eradication program, keeping confirmed U.S. cases low and risk to animals and people very low according to CDC and APHIS updates through mid-August 2026. State-level disaster declarations occurred in Texas and Florida, and HHS issued an earlier emergency use authorization for certain animal drugs, but no nationwide federal emergency declaration has followed. Trader sentiment reflects the limited geographic spread, successful historical precedent for eradication, and ongoing model-driven monitoring, with odds likely hinging on whether case numbers or economic impacts escalate enough to trigger presidential action before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問