**SB Energy’s planned IPO faces significant delays driven by valuation skepticism, pushing the “no IPO before January 2027” outcome to a 61.5% market-implied probability.** The SoftBank-backed AI data center and power developer filed its S-1 on September 1, 2026, targeting a raise of $5–7 billion at a valuation above $50 billion to fund gigawatt-scale campuses in Texas and Ohio. Nvidia committed roughly $3 billion total through private placement and prepaid shares, while OpenAI holds warrants, underscoring AI infrastructure demand. However, reports from mid-to-late September highlighted investor pushback on the $50 billion target amid zero current data center revenue, heavy first-half losses, customer concentration risks, and an unproven operating history, leading bankers to postpone the roadshow. This uncertainty favors lower or delayed valuations in the $40–50 billion range (9.6%) or below (8.3%), while higher bands remain thin. The market reflects trader caution that execution timelines for large-scale power and compute projects, regulatory reviews, and broader AI spending sentiment could further shift timing or pricing before any listing closes.