**RFK Jr. remains actively engaged as HHS Secretary with strong White House alignment on MAHA priorities, vaccine policy revisions, and agency reorganizations.** Recent developments include his October remarks emphasizing permanent HHS changes, leadership adjustments reported in early October, and ongoing initiatives such as a new NIH vaccine-injury clinic and food-dye phase-out plans. Congressional scrutiny and legal challenges over task-force overhauls or spending cuts have not produced resignation signals or removal proceedings. Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to “No” based on this sustained tenure and lack of imminent departure catalysts through the October 31 window. Late developments such as health events, major ethics findings, or abrupt administration shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.