Official measurements from NOAA stations in New York City, including Central Park, recorded total July 2026 precipitation falling squarely in the 4–5 inch range, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that bin. This outcome reflects the month's observed rainfall totals aggregated from verified daily reports, consistent with climatological baselines where July averages near 4.5 inches under typical convective patterns. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at near-certainty levels, incorporates final data releases and minimal model divergence on historical analogs. Realistic challenges remain limited to post hoc data revisions by monitoring agencies or station-specific discrepancies, though such adjustments rarely exceed narrow thresholds once preliminary sums are confirmed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月のニューヨークの降水量は?
4-5" 100.0%
<2" <1%
2-3" <1%
3-4" <1%
$49,258 Vol.
$49,258 Vol.
<2"
No
2-3"
No
3-4"
No
4-5"
Yes
5-6"
No
>6"
No
4-5" 100.0%
<2" <1%
2-3" <1%
3-4" <1%
$49,258 Vol.
$49,258 Vol.
<2"
No
2-3"
No
3-4"
No
4-5"
Yes
5-6"
No
>6"
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for July 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of July 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for July 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of July 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official measurements from NOAA stations in New York City, including Central Park, recorded total July 2026 precipitation falling squarely in the 4–5 inch range, aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for that bin. This outcome reflects the month's observed rainfall totals aggregated from verified daily reports, consistent with climatological baselines where July averages near 4.5 inches under typical convective patterns. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at near-certainty levels, incorporates final data releases and minimal model divergence on historical analogs. Realistic challenges remain limited to post hoc data revisions by monitoring agencies or station-specific discrepancies, though such adjustments rarely exceed narrow thresholds once preliminary sums are confirmed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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