The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% and five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 straight months through July 2026, aligning with trader expectations of policy continuity. Recent economic data showing uneven growth and softer second-quarter performance have not prompted immediate easing, as authorities favor incremental fiscal support, reserve requirement adjustments, or targeted credit measures over broad rate reductions. Market surveys indicate most economists anticipate no policy rate shift through the end of 2026, with monthly LPR fixing dates in August and September offering limited windows for action before the September 30 cutoff. This steady pattern underpins the strong consensus probability of no change, while the smaller chance of a modest cut reflects ongoing debates over growth support needs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 71%
引き下げ 27%
引き上げ <1%
$28,292 Vol.
$28,292 Vol.
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
71%
引き下げ
27%
変更なし 71%
引き下げ 27%
引き上げ <1%
$28,292 Vol.
$28,292 Vol.
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
71%
引き下げ
27%
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% and five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 straight months through July 2026, aligning with trader expectations of policy continuity. Recent economic data showing uneven growth and softer second-quarter performance have not prompted immediate easing, as authorities favor incremental fiscal support, reserve requirement adjustments, or targeted credit measures over broad rate reductions. Market surveys indicate most economists anticipate no policy rate shift through the end of 2026, with monthly LPR fixing dates in August and September offering limited windows for action before the September 30 cutoff. This steady pattern underpins the strong consensus probability of no change, while the smaller chance of a modest cut reflects ongoing debates over growth support needs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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