Incumbent Republican Mike Carey faces Democrat Don Leonard in Ohio’s 15th district on November 3, where the seat carries an R+5 Partisan Voter Index and supported the Republican presidential nominee by double digits in 2024. Recent analyst downgrades to “Likely Republican” reflect the national generic congressional ballot advantage for Democrats, which has narrowed the gap in this suburban Columbus district. An August poll showed Carey leading Leonard by four points with a Libertarian candidate drawing support. Limited subsequent polling and the district’s structural Republican tilt keep the race within a narrow margin range, with trader prices clustered around single-digit Republican victories or close Democratic showings. Late-cycle national trends, turnout patterns, and any final campaign spending could still shift the outcome before Election Day.