Andris Kulbergs holds a commanding 99% implied probability in the market for Latvia’s next prime minister because his United List party secured a record post-independence victory in the October 3 parliamentary election, winning roughly 35% of the vote and 41–42 seats in the 100-seat Saeima. The result followed his May 2026 appointment as caretaker prime minister after the prior coalition collapsed over drone-incursion handling, and voters rewarded his emphasis on security, economic priorities, and a firm stance toward Russia. Coalition talks are expected to begin promptly with established partners New Unity and the National Alliance, which together would deliver a working majority. While the outcome remains subject to formal confirmation by the Saeima and potential last-minute shifts in negotiations, no other listed candidate commands meaningful support among traders.
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