The upcoming 24 September 2026 House of Keys election and the subsequent Chief Minister nomination vote by the new 24-member chamber, expected around mid-October, are the dominant factors shaping trader odds. Incumbent Alfred Cannan leads at 37% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election, yet his position reflects ongoing scrutiny over health service pressures at Manx Care, economic policy resets following the January 2026 ministerial reshuffle, and the non-partisan structure that demands broad cross-bench backing rather than party discipline. Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% benefit from their legislative profiles and visibility on fiscal and governance issues, while lower-probability names and the 50% Other option capture the fragmented field of independents and potential late shifts once results clarify the composition of the new Keys. Recent candidate debates and postal voting deadlines have kept focus on delivery priorities without producing decisive momentum for any single contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アルフレッド・キャナン 37%
クリス・トーマス 22%
ジェーン・プール＝ウィルソン 17%
ロブ・キャリスター 6.2%
$40,679 Vol.
$40,679 Vol.
アルフレッド・キャナン
37%
クリス・トーマス
22%
ジェーン・プール＝ウィルソン
17%
ロブ・キャリスター
6%
ローリー・フーパー
5%
アレックス・アリンソン
2%
アルフレッド・キャナン 37%
クリス・トーマス 22%
ジェーン・プール＝ウィルソン 17%
ロブ・キャリスター 6.2%
$40,679 Vol.
$40,679 Vol.
アルフレッド・キャナン
37%
クリス・トーマス
22%
ジェーン・プール＝ウィルソン
17%
ロブ・キャリスター
6%
ローリー・フーパー
5%
アレックス・アリンソン
2%
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming 24 September 2026 House of Keys election and the subsequent Chief Minister nomination vote by the new 24-member chamber, expected around mid-October, are the dominant factors shaping trader odds. Incumbent Alfred Cannan leads at 37% as the only sitting chief minister seeking re-election, yet his position reflects ongoing scrutiny over health service pressures at Manx Care, economic policy resets following the January 2026 ministerial reshuffle, and the non-partisan structure that demands broad cross-bench backing rather than party discipline. Chris Thomas at 22% and Jane Poole-Wilson at 17% benefit from their legislative profiles and visibility on fiscal and governance issues, while lower-probability names and the 50% Other option capture the fragmented field of independents and potential late shifts once results clarify the composition of the new Keys. Recent candidate debates and postal voting deadlines have kept focus on delivery priorities without producing decisive momentum for any single contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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