Microsoft's June 2026 Build conference served as the primary catalyst, with the company unveiling MAI-Thinking-1—its first in-house reasoning large language model—as a 35-billion-active-parameter mixture-of-experts system optimized for multi-step reasoning, coding, and enterprise tasks. The model, trained from scratch without distillation on licensed data, entered private preview on Foundry and posted competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro while earning user preference in blind evaluations versus Sonnet 4.6. Subsequent July updates highlighted specialized reinforcement learning versions delivering efficiency gains in products like GitHub Copilot and Excel, underscoring Microsoft's push for cost-effective, on-platform alternatives to frontier models. Traders are monitoring further public availability, benchmark disclosures, and integration timelines as the next potential sentiment drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
September 30
32%
December 31
55%
$488 Vol.
September 30
$187 Vol.
32%
December 31
$301 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build conference served as the primary catalyst, with the company unveiling MAI-Thinking-1—its first in-house reasoning large language model—as a 35-billion-active-parameter mixture-of-experts system optimized for multi-step reasoning, coding, and enterprise tasks. The model, trained from scratch without distillation on licensed data, entered private preview on Foundry and posted competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro while earning user preference in blind evaluations versus Sonnet 4.6. Subsequent July updates highlighted specialized reinforcement learning versions delivering efficiency gains in products like GitHub Copilot and Excel, underscoring Microsoft's push for cost-effective, on-platform alternatives to frontier models. Traders are monitoring further public availability, benchmark disclosures, and integration timelines as the next potential sentiment drivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
音量
$488終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2026 Build conference served as the primary catalyst, with the company unveiling MAI-Thinking-1—its first in-house reasoning large language model—as a 35-billion-active-parameter mixture-of-experts system optimized for multi-step reasoning, coding, and enterprise tasks. The model, trained from scratch without distillation on licensed data, entered private preview on Foundry and posted competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro while earning user preference in blind evaluations versus Sonnet 4.6. Subsequent July updates highlighted specialized reinforcement learning versions delivering efficiency gains in products like GitHub Copilot and Excel, underscoring Microsoft's push for cost-effective, on-platform alternatives to frontier models. Traders are monitoring further public availability, benchmark disclosures, and integration timelines as the next potential sentiment drivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$488終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's June 2026 Build conference served as the primary catalyst, with the company unveiling MAI-Thinking-1—its first in-house reasoning large language model—as a 35-billion-active-parameter mixture-of-experts system optimized for multi-step reasoning, coding, and enterprise tasks. The model, trained from scratch without distillation on licensed data, entered private preview on Foundry and posted competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro while earning user preference in blind evaluations versus Sonnet 4.6. Subsequent July updates highlighted specialized reinforcement learning versions delivering efficiency gains in products like GitHub Copilot and Excel, underscoring Microsoft's push for cost-effective, on-platform alternatives to frontier models. Traders are monitoring further public availability, benchmark disclosures, and integration timelines as the next potential sentiment drivers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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