The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains the central driver of this market, though enforcement has proven limited. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction, and Netanyahu has continued international travel—including visits to the United States and Hungary—without detention, as non-member states like the U.S. face no obligation to act and allies have signaled non-cooperation. Recent statements from U.S. President Trump explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil, while Netanyahu has publicly dismissed enforcement risks and announced plans to address the United Nations in New York. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings continue separately but have not produced new arrests. With trader-implied probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remaining in the low single digits, markets reflect the structural and diplomatic barriers to actual detention absent major shifts in alliances or court procedures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,680 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
1%
12月31日
6%
$20,680 Vol.
9月30日
$14,912 Vol.
1%
12月31日
$5,768 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains the central driver of this market, though enforcement has proven limited. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction, and Netanyahu has continued international travel—including visits to the United States and Hungary—without detention, as non-member states like the U.S. face no obligation to act and allies have signaled non-cooperation. Recent statements from U.S. President Trump explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil, while Netanyahu has publicly dismissed enforcement risks and announced plans to address the United Nations in New York. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings continue separately but have not produced new arrests. With trader-implied probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remaining in the low single digits, markets reflect the structural and diplomatic barriers to actual detention absent major shifts in alliances or court procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
音量
$20,680終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains the central driver of this market, though enforcement has proven limited. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction, and Netanyahu has continued international travel—including visits to the United States and Hungary—without detention, as non-member states like the U.S. face no obligation to act and allies have signaled non-cooperation. Recent statements from U.S. President Trump explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil, while Netanyahu has publicly dismissed enforcement risks and announced plans to address the United Nations in New York. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings continue separately but have not produced new arrests. With trader-implied probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remaining in the low single digits, markets reflect the structural and diplomatic barriers to actual detention absent major shifts in alliances or court procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,680終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains the central driver of this market, though enforcement has proven limited. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction, and Netanyahu has continued international travel—including visits to the United States and Hungary—without detention, as non-member states like the U.S. face no obligation to act and allies have signaled non-cooperation. Recent statements from U.S. President Trump explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil, while Netanyahu has publicly dismissed enforcement risks and announced plans to address the United Nations in New York. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings continue separately but have not produced new arrests. With trader-implied probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remaining in the low single digits, markets reflect the structural and diplomatic barriers to actual detention absent major shifts in alliances or court procedures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問